Nepal\u27s Protracted Democratization in Terms of Modes of Transition

Since 2005, Nepal has been engaged in a complex political transition that has resulted in the termination of Nepal’s 240 year old monarchy. Currently, the progress of Nepal’s political transition confronts the dual challenges of writing a constitution and mainstreaming the Maoists and their thousands of combatants, who had engaged in a decade long insurgency against the state. Growing differences between the radical Maoists and Nepal’s other political parties have repeatedly blocked Nepal’s attempt to institutionalize democracy. How does one study Nepal’s democratic transition? How does Nepal’s case relate to the wider scholarship on transition to democracy? This article critically applies the modes of transition approach to analyze Nepal’s various political transitions. The modes of transition approach with its emphasis on elite interactions during periods of transition and their enduring impact of such interactions on the regime that emerges offers a valuable analytical framework to examine series of transitions in Nepal. Many of the initial assumptions of the modes of transitions approach deriving from the experiences of Southern Europe and Latin America have recently been reexamined in the context of democratic transitions in Eastern Europe. Do Nepal’s transitions resonate with earlier patterns of third wave democratizations in Southern Europe and Latin America or do they show greater similarity with what some describe as the fourth wave of democratic transitions in post-communist Eastern Europe? This article critically applies the major premises of this approach to Nepali case assessing their validity as well as shortcomings. The central thesis underlying this paper is that the modes of transition approach, though useful in its focus on the crucial role of actors and strategies as key to understanding Nepal’s political transition, fails to account for several critical factors such as the role of external actors, the positive role of mass mobilization and leading democratic agenda of radical forces. The paper is divided into three sections. The first section lays out the theoretical framework related to the modes of transition; the second part examines Nepal’s transitions applying the key concepts of modes of transition approach; and the third section presents a critical assessment of problems and prospects of consolidation of Nepal’s current efforts to achieve a democratic system

Nepali troubled transition: Some broader patterns

The end of the CA has amplified Nepal’s political uncertainties. The question that looms large is whether Nepal’s political parties will continue to work together to deliver a constitution that regularizes democratic process or whether they will drift further apart and endanger the gains already achieved. My paper argues that the basic dynamics underlying Nepal’s current political transformations remains unchanged. Cooperation among Nepal’s political parties has been the most crucial factor in this transformation. Interparty cooperation among Nepal’s political parties and the critical role of Nepal’s neighbors are the two linchpins of this dynamics. How will these internal and external factors impact Nepali politics in the new context of CA dissolution? In the following sections, I identify five broader patterns that have set the contours of Nepal’s current political transition and then I follow up with brief explanations of the same

Understanding Nepal’s Madhesi movement and its future trajectory

How definitive is the success of the Madhesi movement and how does one explain its course? What was the nature of the Madhesi uprising? Has there been a real shift in the attitude of Nepali elites toward the Madhesi issues? Are the Madhesi issues likely to be resolved peacefully? Many such questions about the Madhesi movement remain still unanswered. During my field study in Nepal in July-August 2010, I posed some of these questions to numerous Madhesi politicians, civil society leaders and ordinary citizens. My paper combines my field study observations with scholarly research to examine the dynamics of Madhesi movement

Reflections on the state of democratic transition process in South Asia

South Asia has a wide range of experience with democracy. While India’s democracy has proved resilient and exemplary, the foundations for democratic governance in other countries in the region are still fragile. The 1999 coup in Pakistan derailed the country’s experiment with democracy since 1988. With the success of the April 2006 movement, Nepal recently started another attempt at transition to democracy- a process disrupted by the May 2002 dismissal of the national parliament by King Gyanendra. The varying level of success of different South Asian countries with democratic governance offers rich contexts to learn about the dynamics of democratic transition and consolidation. Dwelling on the experiences of India, Nepal and Pakistan, this paper focused on the role of elite cooperation or conflict in the process of democratic transition and/or consolidation. The main thesis underlying this paper is that the role of national elites (defined broadly as leaders and activists) is central to understanding democratization process in a developing country like Nepal. The paper argues that the absence of factors that are considered preconditions for the success of democracy such as higher level of income, liberal values and tolerant culture is somehow compensated by the vanguard role of elites if they learn to cooperate with each other to build and sustain democratic order

India’s role in Nepal’s political transition and the peace process: help or hindrance?

The election of Maoist leader Baburam Bhattrai as Nepal’s Prime Minister on August 29 ,2011 marked a clear deviation from India’s recent policy of rallying anti Maoist forces to keep Nepal’s Maoists from returning to power. Bhattrai was elected with the support of the Terai or plain region parties which represent Nepal’s Madhesi population. Most Madhesi parties, since their rise into national prominence in 2007, were known to have calibrated their moves with India. The formation of Mr. Bhattarai’s government raises many questions. Does the return of Maoist led government in Kathmandu signal a real shift in New Delhi’s policy towards Nepal’s major political actors? Is the formation of Maoist- Madhesi coalition a sign of India’s waning influence on the principals of Nepali politics? Have Nepal’s traditional political parties, the Nepali Congress (NC), and the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN-UML), lost India’s confidence in their ability to achieve a breakthrough with the Maoists in completing the peace process or to effectively encounter the Maoist challenge? This paper examines these questions in order to understand if recent developments in Nepal signal a fundamental recalibration of India-Nepal relations and how India’s policies in Nepal have helped or hindered Nepal’s peace process

Veto Players in Post-Conflict DDR Programs: Evidence from Nepal and the DRC

Under what conditions are Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) programs successfully implemented following intrastate conflict? Previous research is dominated by under-theorized case studies that lack the ability to detect the precise factors and mechanisms that lead to successful DDR. In this article, we draw on game theory and ask how the number of veto players, their policy distance, and their internal cohesion impact DDR implementation. Using empirical evidence from Nepal and the Democratic Republic of Congo, we show that the number of veto players, rather than their distance and cohesion, explains the (lack of) implementation of DDR

Nepal’s democratic transition and the rule of law: Will the judiciary stay on probation?

My paper answers some questions by drawing on more than twenty interviews conducted during a two-week long field work in Kathmandu in December 2007 with the members of Nepal’s legal community (lawyers, judges, judicial officials, and politicians) on their perception of the past, present and future role of judiciary